Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 5307 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 5307 DCA 07:44 → BDL 09:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 974 DCA 22:21 → BDL 23:54 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5307 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 07:44	BDL 09:16	8%	3%	0.7%	82%
OH 5079 PSA	DCA 10:16	BDL 11:54	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5059 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:59	BDL 14:27	14%	5%	0.7%	68%
OH 5058 PSA	DCA 17:50	BDL 19:27	19%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 974 American Flight history →	DCA 22:21	BDL 23:54	22%	5%	0.7%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON