Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5507 DCA 10:47 → BGR 12:53 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5202 DCA 22:00 → BGR 23:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5507 PSA	DCA 10:47	BGR 12:53	17%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5516 PSA	DCA 14:39	BGR 16:47	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
OH 5202 PSA	DCA 22:00	BGR 23:59	21%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON