Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1388 at 06:17 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 1388 DCA 06:17 → BNA 07:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1390 DCA 15:48 → BNA 16:33 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1388 Southwest	DCA 06:17	BNA 07:02	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
YX 4356 Republic	DCA 07:15	BNA 08:24	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 5708 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:04	BNA 11:05	10%	2%	0.8%	89%
YX 4367 Republic	DCA 22:12	BNA 23:22	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1009 Southwest	DCA 10:43	BNA 11:29	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 5707 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:59	BNA 22:02	13%	4%	0.8%	79%
DL 5777 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:10	BNA 16:15	17%	3%	0.9%	76%
AA 1163 American Flight history →	DCA 21:17	BNA 22:27	18%	7%	1.2%	61%
WN 1503 Southwest	DCA 13:04	BNA 13:50	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4276 Envoy	DCA 14:13	BNA 15:19	19%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 5085 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:04	BNA 10:11	19%	4%	1.8%	64%
WN 2843 Southwest	DCA 19:08	BNA 19:54	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 1390 Southwest	DCA 15:48	BNA 16:33	22%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON