Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5710 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–48%.

Safest bet that day DL 5710 DCA 06:00 → BOS 07:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2954 DCA 17:40 → BOS 19:21 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5710 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:00	BOS 07:45	3%	1%	0.8%	93%
YX 4669 Republic	DCA 06:12	BOS 08:04	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 5698 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:59	BOS 08:41	5%	1%	0.8%	92%
AA 3240 American Flight history →	DCA 06:50	BOS 08:30	6%	2%	0.9%	82%
DL 5687 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:29	BOS 10:15	11%	2%	0.9%	88%
DL 5852 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:11	BOS 11:54	12%	3%	0.9%	85%
AA 1164 American	DCA 08:25	BOS 10:23	13%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 4337 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:54	BOS 11:49	14%	3%	1.1%	50%
AA 1015 American Flight history →	DCA 10:45	BOS 12:35	15%	6%	1.1%	75%
B6 554 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 08:44	BOS 10:20	16%	3%	1.0%	88%
DL 5693 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:47	BOS 13:27	17%	5%	0.9%	84%
YX 5863 Republic	DCA 21:56	BOS 23:39	21%	7%	1.4%	no record
B6 2454 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 11:00	BOS 12:35	22%	7%	1.1%	82%
DL 5592 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 12:55	BOS 14:40	23%	10%	1.1%	82%
MQ 3523 Envoy	DCA 22:17	BOS 23:54	27%	9%	2.9%	no record
B6 754 JetBlue	DCA 12:22	BOS 14:05	29%	13%	1.1%	no record
YX 4665 Republic	DCA 13:11	BOS 15:06	29%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 4668 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:12	BOS 21:07	29%	12%	1.6%	73%
AA 955 American	DCA 15:11	BOS 17:07	34%	15%	1.4%	no record
B6 1254 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 13:25	BOS 14:59	37%	19%	1.3%	68%
DL 5689 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:30	BOS 20:29	37%	19%	2.0%	62%
B6 1854 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 19:59	BOS 21:38	40%	22%	1.9%	66%
B6 1354 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 14:25	BOS 16:00	43%	22%	1.4%	49%
DL 5600 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 16:56	BOS 18:42	43%	22%	2.2%	61%
DL 5682 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 16:58	BOS 18:41	44%	20%	2.0%	59%
B6 2754 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:55	BOS 20:30	44%	22%	1.8%	50%
AA 3207 American Flight history →	DCA 17:00	BOS 18:47	44%	25%	1.9%	43%
B6 2954 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 17:40	BOS 19:21	48%	28%	1.9%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON