Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4647 at 09:58 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 4647 DCA 09:58 → BUF 11:38 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest OH 5237 DCA 15:49 → BUF 17:14 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4647 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:58	BUF 11:38	11%	3%	1.1%	62%
OH 5051 PSA	DCA 12:42	BUF 14:14	21%	8%	2.3%	no record
OH 5268 PSA	DCA 22:20	BUF 23:46	23%	10%	2.3%	no record
OH 5237 PSA	DCA 15:49	BUF 17:14	30%	11%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON