Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3891 DCA 08:46 → CHS 10:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5056 DCA 17:15 → CHS 19:12 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3891 Envoy	DCA 08:46	CHS 10:43	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
OH 5194 PSA	DCA 11:59	CHS 13:53	18%	6%	1.6%	no record
OH 5566 PSA	DCA 14:02	CHS 16:01	18%	8%	1.7%	no record
AA 2203 American	DCA 20:11	CHS 22:08	19%	7%	1.1%	no record
OH 5056 PSA	DCA 17:15	CHS 19:12	20%	9%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON