Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, MQ 3345 at 11:54, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3345 Envoy	DCA 11:54	CID 13:24	9%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → CID 11:47DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	6h 47m	99%	92%
American Details →	DCA 11:59 → DFW 14:23AA 1623	1h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:11 → CID 18:25AA 4318 · flown by Envoy	7h 26m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 14:52 → CID 16:04DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	5h 04m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 22:12 → CID 23:24DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor	5h 25m	92%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 20:56 → CID 22:03DL 2626	7h 03m	98%	85%
American Details →	DCA 13:44 → DFW 16:11AA 1177	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:33 → CID 20:42AA 3798 · flown by Envoy	7h 58m	98%	84%
American Details →	DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414	1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:05 → CID 23:15AA 4235 · flown by Envoy	7h 04m	91%	79%
United Details →	DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 21:11 → CID 22:20UA 220	6h 15m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON