Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 3915 at 14:14 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3915 DCA 14:14 → CLE 15:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5091 DCA 17:45 → CLE 19:22 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3915 Envoy	DCA 14:14	CLE 15:47	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
OH 5395 PSA	DCA 07:44	CLE 09:18	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5535 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:00	CLE 13:31	18%	4%	0.7%	76%
OH 5091 PSA	DCA 17:45	CLE 19:22	23%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON