Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1521 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13%.

Safest bet that day AA 1521 DCA 06:00 → CLT 07:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest OH 5527 DCA 13:13 → CLT 14:41 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1521 American Flight history →	DCA 06:00	CLT 07:34	5%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 1518 American Flight history →	DCA 08:30	CLT 10:13	6%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 580 American	DCA 10:05	CLT 11:29	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 761 American	DCA 11:52	CLT 13:17	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2040 American Flight history →	DCA 15:17	CLT 16:53	11%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 2182 American Flight history →	DCA 17:50	CLT 19:37	13%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 2002 American	DCA 19:10	CLT 20:40	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
OH 5527 PSA	DCA 13:13	CLT 14:41	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON