Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4627 DCA 07:08 → CMH 08:37 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3441 DCA 22:07 → CMH 23:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4627 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 07:08	CMH 08:37	3%	1%	0.5%	94%
AA 4700 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:12	CMH 11:46	6%	1%	0.5%	87%
YX 4777 Republic	DCA 14:07	CMH 15:50	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2658 Southwest	DCA 11:44	CMH 13:05	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 4398 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:11	CMH 18:51	9%	2%	0.5%	73%
AA 3441 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 22:07	CMH 23:35	9%	3%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON