Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4435 at 12:11 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day


YX 4435 Republic	DCA 12:11	DSM 14:02	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5432 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 21:58	DSM 23:39	21%	6%	0.8%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	5h 45m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 09:21 → DSM 10:37DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	5h 37m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	6h 34m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 34m Detroit	DTW 09:03 → DSM 09:52DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	4h 52m	97%	90%
American Details →	DCA 06:00 → CLT 07:33AA 1521	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 10:36 → DSM 12:07AA 2962	7h 07m	100%	90%
American Details →	DCA 10:07 → DFW 12:28AA 795	3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:56 → DSM 18:08AA 3930 · flown by Envoy	9h 01m	100%	90%
United Details →	DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061	3h 19m Chicago	ORD 13:02 → DSM 14:26UA 1658	7h 01m	100%	89%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 09:20 → DSM 10:40UA 466	5h 10m	99%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON