Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Nonstops that day


YX 4789 Republic	DCA 11:29	ECP 13:02	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	5h 48m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	6h 54m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	6h 56m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	6h 07m	97%	89%
American Details →	DCA 06:00 → CLT 07:34AA 1521	3h 14m Charlotte	CLT 10:48 → ECP 11:32AA 5262 · flown by PSA	6h 32m	100%	89%
American Details →	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:41 → ECP 21:59AA 3628 · flown by Envoy	7h 46m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → ECP 19:20DL 3053	4h 20m	91%	84%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 02m Houston	IAH 09:15 → ECP 11:11UA 4225 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 11m	96%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON