Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 379 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day B6 379 DCA 06:00 → FLL 08:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 2923 DCA 15:01 → FLL 17:47 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 379 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:00	FLL 08:32	8%	3%	1.1%	77%
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DCA 08:05	FLL 11:00	12%	3%	1.1%	89%
B6 579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:59	FLL 10:40	14%	4%	1.1%	81%
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 16:40	FLL 19:38	22%	10%	1.3%	61%
WN 2923 Southwest	DCA 15:01	FLL 17:47	22%	5%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON