tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 11:45 GRR 13:44 15% 4% 0.7% 73%
AA 5376 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 21:39 GRR 23:39 19% 9% 0.8% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547 5h 43m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454 3h 52m Detroit DTW 23:07 → GRR 00:06 +1DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor 6h 37m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558 1h 43m Detroit DTW 12:52 → GRR 13:52DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor 4h 13m 98% 92%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 3h 01m Chicago ORD 10:47 → GRR 13:00UA 1297 6h 30m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058 6h 58m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:15 → LGA 08:40AA 4403 · flown by Republic 1h 35m New York LGA 10:15 → GRR 12:24AA 4775 · flown by Republic 5h 09m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:42 → ORD 08:52UA 441 3h 41m Chicago ORD 12:33 → GRR 14:31UA 2751 6h 49m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:33 → EWR 10:00UA 4430 · flown by GoJet 3h 52m Newark EWR 13:52 → GRR 16:03UA 3419 · flown by Republic 7h 30m 99% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON