tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4783 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4783 Republic DCA 08:35 GSO 10:02 8% 2% 0.6% no record
OH 5140 PSA DCA 17:43 GSO 19:12 20% 7% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → GSO 11:34DL 3052 5h 34m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 37m Detroit DTW 09:06 → GSO 10:48DL 4966 · flown by Endeavor 4h 48m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:15 → LGA 09:33DL 5772 · flown by Republic 2h 48m New York LGA 12:21 → GSO 13:59DL 5132 · flown by Endeavor 5h 44m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:14 → ORD 08:22AA 523 2h 25m Chicago ORD 10:47 → GSO 13:56AA 4144 · flown by Envoy 6h 42m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → GSO 15:30DL 2539 6h 30m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:49 → GSO 14:04DL 3060 6h 04m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476 2h 03m Detroit DTW 16:03 → GSO 17:47DL 5512 · flown by Endeavor 5h 24m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454 1h 51m Detroit DTW 21:06 → GSO 22:47DL 5407 · flown by Endeavor 5h 18m 96% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON