Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3997 DCA 08:20 → HSV 09:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 5557 DCA 19:59 → HSV 21:10 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3997 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 08:20	HSV 09:26	13%	4%	1.3%	80%
MQ 4249 Envoy	DCA 16:58	HSV 18:03	17%	6%	1.8%	no record
OH 5143 PSA	DCA 12:07	HSV 13:12	19%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 5557 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:59	HSV 21:10	19%	11%	1.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON