Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1450 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1450 DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OH 5411 DCA 20:46 → IAH 22:54 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1450 United Flight history →	DCA 06:00	IAH 08:13	5%	1%	0.7%	93%
UA 697 United Flight history →	DCA 08:20	IAH 10:41	9%	2%	0.8%	91%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	DCA 10:58	IAH 13:19	10%	3%	0.8%	86%
UA 382 United Flight history →	DCA 12:59	IAH 15:18	13%	3%	0.8%	91%
OH 5496 PSA	DCA 07:33	IAH 09:40	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 1678 United Flight history →	DCA 19:28	IAH 21:59	15%	5%	0.7%	73%
UA 1785 United Flight history →	DCA 16:59	IAH 19:27	17%	6%	0.7%	66%
OH 5591 PSA	DCA 13:59	IAH 16:26	18%	8%	1.2%	no record
OH 5411 PSA	DCA 20:46	IAH 22:54	24%	9%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON