Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5802 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 5802 DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest YX 5853 DCA 17:01 → JFK 18:24 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5802 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:02	JFK 07:25	3%	2%	1.6%	93%
AA 4551 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 06:30	JFK 07:57	4%	1%	1.5%	94%
B6 254 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:21	JFK 07:30	7%	2%	1.4%	91%
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 11:05	JFK 12:28	14%	4%	2.3%	94%
AA 4522 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:11	JFK 14:44	24%	10%	4.0%	72%
AA 4629 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 18:36	JFK 20:13	29%	12%	3.1%	71%
YX 5853 Republic	DCA 17:01	JFK 18:24	32%	10%	3.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON