tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2149 American DCA 08:04 LAS 10:22 10% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 1402 Southwest DCA 16:40 LAS 18:46 21% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 3h 35m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 9h 26m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 10h 13m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 00m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:00 → CLT 07:34AA 1521 3h 08m Charlotte CLT 10:42 → LAS 12:29AA 2470 9h 29m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 30m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 7h 12m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 3h 39m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 10h 17m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → LAS 14:49DL 659 8h 49m 98% 87%
FrontierDetails → DCA 07:00 → DEN 09:01F9 685 3h 46m Denver DEN 12:47 → LAS 13:47F9 4967 9h 47m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 18:10 → ORD 19:32UA 2148 54m Chicago ORD 20:26 → LAS 22:15UA 777 7h 05m 65% 48%
UnitedDetails → DCA 09:23 → ORD 10:23UA 351 46m Chicago ORD 11:09 → LAS 13:08UA 1803 6h 45m 52% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON