Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1966 DCA 08:40 → LAX 11:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3283 DCA 18:01 → LAX 20:41 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1966 American Flight history →	DCA 08:40	LAX 11:19	11%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:45	LAX 19:19	15%	5%	1.3%	75%
AS 5 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 09:59	LAX 12:27	16%	3%	0.9%	71%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	DCA 18:01	LAX 20:41	18%	7%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 10m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 45m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	8h 12m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON