Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 3627 at 17:09, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3627 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 17:09	LIT 19:00	10%	3%	0.7%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → LIT 11:03DL 3040	6h 03m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027	5h 56m	99%	91%
American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:35 → LIT 12:59AA 3898 · flown by Envoy	7h 00m	99%	90%
American Details →	DCA 10:07 → DFW 12:29AA 795	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:52 → LIT 17:20AA 4309 · flown by Envoy	8h 13m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 18:02 → LIT 18:42DL 2061	7h 15m	99%	89%
American Details →	DCA 15:51 → ORD 16:59AA 1637	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:59 → LIT 21:59AA 3561 · flown by Envoy	7h 08m	99%	88%
United Details →	DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061	3h 36m Chicago	ORD 13:19 → LIT 15:17UA 4458 · flown by GoJet	7h 52m	100%	88%
American Details →	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:11 → LIT 22:35AA 4079 · flown by Envoy	8h 22m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON