Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3143 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3143 DCA 06:52 → MCI 08:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5423 DCA 20:15 → MCI 21:44 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3143 Southwest	DCA 06:52	MCI 08:26	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
AA 2853 American	DCA 07:27	MCI 09:16	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 2678 Southwest	DCA 15:04	MCI 16:39	20%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 2443 Southwest	DCA 20:00	MCI 21:37	23%	5%	0.9%	no record
OH 5472 PSA	DCA 14:10	MCI 16:10	24%	7%	1.7%	no record
OH 5423 PSA	DCA 20:15	MCI 21:44	30%	9%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON