Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 994 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 994 DCA 06:02 → MCO 08:12 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2523 DCA 18:32 → MCO 21:08 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 994 Southwest	DCA 06:02	MCO 08:12	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:59	MCO 09:20	5%	2%	1.0%	82%
AA 592 American Flight history →	DCA 06:30	MCO 08:55	5%	1%	0.9%	90%
B6 2423 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:25	MCO 09:46	8%	2%	0.8%	79%
AA 2128 American Flight history →	DCA 08:24	MCO 11:02	11%	3%	0.9%	74%
WN 1092 Southwest	DCA 12:46	MCO 15:10	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1153 American Flight history →	DCA 11:04	MCO 13:42	11%	3%	1.0%	89%
B6 8420 JetBlue	DCA 12:57	MCO 15:30	13%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 2509 American Flight history →	DCA 13:48	MCO 16:22	14%	4%	1.0%	76%
B6 1923 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 11:50	MCO 14:04	15%	5%	1.0%	71%
AA 2139 American Flight history →	DCA 19:59	MCO 22:33	18%	7%	0.9%	57%
DL 1621 Delta	DCA 14:47	MCO 17:15	19%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 429 Southwest	DCA 18:03	MCO 20:25	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
B6 2523 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:32	MCO 21:08	22%	10%	1.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON