Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1409 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1409 DCA 06:06 → MDW 07:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1413 DCA 18:52 → MDW 19:52 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1409 Southwest	DCA 06:06	MDW 07:05	4%	1%	1.6%	no record
WN 2252 Southwest	DCA 09:34	MDW 10:34	10%	2%	1.5%	no record
WN 4129 Southwest	DCA 12:10	MDW 13:12	15%	3%	1.4%	no record
WN 2679 Southwest	DCA 21:04	MDW 22:05	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 1411 Southwest	DCA 16:33	MDW 17:35	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 1413 Southwest	DCA 18:52	MDW 19:52	22%	5%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON