Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2953 DCA 08:23 → MEM 09:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4681 DCA 20:26 → MEM 21:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2953 American	DCA 08:23	MEM 09:42	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4497 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:36	MEM 17:01	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 4681 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:26	MEM 21:50	11%	3%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON