Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1178 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1178 DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 973 DCA 17:18 → MIA 20:08 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1178 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:56	3%	2%	0.8%	93%
AA 2344 American Flight history →	DCA 04:51	MIA 07:29	7%	2%	0.8%	96%
AA 401 American Flight history →	DCA 10:04	MIA 13:03	10%	3%	0.9%	93%
AA 422 American Flight history →	DCA 08:20	MIA 11:18	12%	3%	0.9%	84%
AA 1627 American Flight history →	DCA 11:55	MIA 14:38	17%	5%	0.9%	76%
AA 1612 American Flight history →	DCA 13:51	MIA 16:44	20%	7%	1.0%	62%
AA 2214 American	DCA 20:55	MIA 23:45	21%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 1299 American	DCA 15:03	MIA 17:56	24%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 582 American	DCA 18:59	MIA 21:49	25%	11%	1.5%	no record
DL 2576 Delta Flight history →	DCA 14:43	MIA 17:33	26%	10%	1.0%	67%
AA 973 American	DCA 17:18	MIA 20:08	27%	10%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON