Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2586 DCA 11:35 → MSY 13:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2683 DCA 19:15 → MSY 20:46 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2586 American	DCA 11:35	MSY 13:26	10%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 1283 Southwest	DCA 11:36	MSY 13:08	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
OH 5274 PSA	DCA 08:01	MSY 09:56	12%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 1788 American Flight history →	DCA 15:00	MSY 16:55	15%	5%	0.9%	64%
WN 2683 Southwest	DCA 19:15	MSY 20:46	18%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON