tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4428 Republic DCA 10:11 MYR 11:59 5% 2% 0.6% no record
YX 4434 Republic DCA 17:23 MYR 19:11 8% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 16m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145 4h 39m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047 4h 47m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 5h 00m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:00 → CLT 07:33AA 1521 2h 33m Charlotte CLT 10:06 → MYR 11:13AA 2431 5h 13m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093 6h 40m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 11:50 → EWR 13:17UA 4446 · flown by GoJet 2h 38m Newark EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic 6h 13m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074 5h 25m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:17 → CLT 16:52AA 2040 3h 04m Charlotte CLT 19:56 → MYR 21:03AA 1085 5h 46m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON