Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5608 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 08:15	OMA 10:13	7%	2%	0.5%	87%
WN 3036 Southwest	DCA 16:54	OMA 18:39	16%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125	7h 45m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	5h 12m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → OMA 09:48DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest	4h 48m	97%	88%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	3h 42m Houston	IAH 11:55 → OMA 14:18UA 1936	9h 18m	100%	87%
United Details →	DCA 07:42 → ORD 08:52UA 441	3h 48m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → OMA 14:17UA 247	7h 35m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364	6h 21m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476	2h 00m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	5h 47m	97%	86%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518	2h 17m Charlotte	CLT 12:30 → OMA 14:11AA 2278	6h 41m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON