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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 9h 33m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:59 → DFW 07:02AA 2007 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:42 → ONT 12:01AA 2956 10h 02m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39AA 2006 1h 10m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → ONT 12:20AA 2661 7h 31m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325 3h 26m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 10h 21m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → DCA 13:44 → DFW 16:11AA 1177 2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:53 → ONT 20:15AA 2147 9h 31m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624 3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:19 → ONT 22:39AA 1695 10h 26m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 55m Atlanta ATL 19:01 → ONT 20:49DL 2891 7h 49m 89% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON