Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 25 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1793 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1793 DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3148 DCA 18:13 → ORD 19:20 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1793 United Flight history →	DCA 06:30	ORD 07:46	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 441 United Flight history →	DCA 07:42	ORD 08:52	6%	2%	0.7%	86%
UA 2774 United Flight history →	DCA 09:30	ORD 10:50	6%	2%	0.7%	94%
YX 4541 Republic	DCA 22:10	ORD 23:23	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1061 United Flight history →	DCA 08:25	ORD 09:43	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 523 American Flight history →	DCA 07:14	ORD 08:22	7%	3%	0.8%	78%
AA 2633 American Flight history →	DCA 07:47	ORD 09:05	8%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 808 American Flight history →	DCA 11:35	ORD 12:49	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 351 United Flight history →	DCA 09:23	ORD 10:23	9%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 522 American	DCA 08:34	ORD 09:40	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1888 United Flight history →	DCA 14:00	ORD 15:19	10%	4%	0.6%	71%
AA 2023 American Flight history →	DCA 10:11	ORD 11:18	10%	3%	0.7%	81%
UA 511 United Flight history →	DCA 13:00	ORD 14:19	11%	3%	0.6%	76%
UA 2803 United	DCA 11:55	ORD 13:03	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2284 American	DCA 13:33	ORD 14:40	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1221 American	DCA 14:59	ORD 16:14	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1325 United Flight history →	DCA 15:30	ORD 16:52	15%	4%	0.7%	66%
AA 1189 American Flight history →	DCA 17:04	ORD 18:28	16%	5%	0.7%	61%
AA 488 American	DCA 20:18	ORD 21:26	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1637 American Flight history →	DCA 15:51	ORD 16:59	17%	4%	0.7%	74%
UA 1193 United Flight history →	DCA 19:10	ORD 20:32	18%	4%	0.7%	58%
UA 654 United Flight history →	DCA 17:05	ORD 18:30	18%	5%	0.6%	50%
UA 2218 United Flight history →	DCA 20:37	ORD 21:35	19%	5%	0.6%	63%
UA 2148 United Flight history →	DCA 18:10	ORD 19:32	19%	5%	0.7%	51%
AA 3148 American	DCA 18:13	ORD 19:20	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON