Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5509 DCA 10:03 → ORF 11:20 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 5662 DCA 20:06 → ORF 21:11 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5509 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:03	ORF 11:20	12%	4%	0.9%	75%
AA 5601 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:01	ORF 17:12	16%	6%	0.9%	56%
AA 5662 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:06	ORF 21:11	18%	7%	1.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON