tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 9 Alaska Flight history → DCA 17:16 PDX 20:04 18% 5% 0.7% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 3h 23m Minneapolis MSP 10:58 → PDX 12:39DL 1661 9h 39m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958 2h 17m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 8h 35m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 9h 58m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820 2h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 8h 59m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic 1h 05m New York JFK 08:30 → PDX 11:36DL 1574 8h 34m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 25m Detroit DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171 7h 36m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740 8h 56m 98% 86%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 09:59 → LAX 12:27AS 5 2h 00m Los Angeles LAX 14:27 → PDX 16:47AS 1315 9h 48m 97% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654 1h 08m Chicago ORD 19:38 → PDX 21:57UA 2243 7h 52m 75% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON