tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4801 at 17:35 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4801 Republic DCA 17:35 PHL 18:44 14% 4% 0.9% no record
OH 5304 PSA DCA 13:36 PHL 14:39 24% 9% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:00 → CLT 07:34AA 1521 1h 46m Charlotte CLT 09:20 → PHL 11:10AA 2565 5h 10m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 4h 57m 96% 89%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:30 → MCO 08:55AA 592 2h 04m Orlando MCO 10:59 → PHL 13:45AA 629 7h 15m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 2h 41m Detroit DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331 5h 46m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → BOS 07:45DL 5710 · flown by Republic 3h 05m Boston BOS 10:50 → PHL 12:28DL 5805 · flown by Republic 6h 28m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:51 → MIA 07:29AA 2344 1h 46m Miami MIA 09:15 → PHL 12:10AA 551 7h 19m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:25 → DTW 09:04AA 5660 · flown by PSA 2h 36m Detroit DTW 11:40 → PHL 13:25AA 5480 · flown by PSA 6h 00m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:08 → CMH 08:37AA 4627 · flown by Republic 2h 03m Columbus CMH 10:40 → PHL 12:15AA 5640 · flown by PSA 5h 07m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:43 → RDU 10:02AA 5627 · flown by PSA 46m Raleigh/Durham RDU 10:48 → PHL 12:30AA 5590 · flown by PSA 3h 47m 52% 43%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:51 → ORD 16:59AA 1637 51m Chicago ORD 17:50 → PHL 21:19AA 597 5h 28m 61% 41%
JetBlueDetails → DCA 17:40 → BOS 19:21B6 2954 1h 08m Boston BOS 20:29 → PHL 22:13B6 159 4h 33m 53% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON