tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2006 DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3191 DCA 18:01 → PHX 19:50 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time
Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 2006 American Flight history → DCA 07:49 PHX 09:39 10% 3% 0.6% 92%
AA 1218 American Flight history → DCA 10:00 PHX 11:44 13% 3% 0.6% 82%
AA 3191 American Flight history → DCA 18:01 PHX 19:50 14% 5% 0.6% 62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 06m Detroit DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070 6h 44m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 7h 02m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 7h 03m 94% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON