Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4446 DCA 13:11 → PIT 14:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 5094 DCA 16:52 → PIT 18:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4446 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:11	PIT 14:36	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
OH 5402 PSA	DCA 07:38	PIT 08:51	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 4763 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:35	PIT 21:45	10%	3%	0.7%	69%
AA 5094 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:52	PIT 18:15	11%	4%	0.8%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON