Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5449 DCA 08:34 → PNS 10:23 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5544 DCA 19:21 → PNS 21:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5449 PSA	DCA 08:34	PNS 10:23	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5139 PSA	DCA 15:14	PNS 16:48	28%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 5544 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:21	PNS 21:00	28%	11%	0.8%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	48m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	3h 51m	87%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON