tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5528 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 10:16 PWM 12:15 10% 3% 0.7% 81%
AA 1423 American Flight history → DCA 14:31 PWM 16:23 13% 4% 0.6% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 2h 31m Detroit DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426 5h 55m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558 2h 56m Detroit DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821 6h 22m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479 7h 00m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:00 → CLT 07:34AA 1521 2h 33m Charlotte CLT 10:07 → PWM 12:37AA 1744 6h 37m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:30 → EWR 09:52UA 4430 · flown by GoJet 2h 07m Newark EWR 11:59 → PWM 13:25UA 3685 · flown by Republic 4h 55m 96% 89%
AmericanDetails → DCA 10:11 → ORD 11:18AA 2023 1h 45m Chicago ORD 13:03 → PWM 16:42AA 4741 · flown by Republic 6h 31m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 3h 14m Chicago ORD 11:00 → PWM 14:31UA 2804 8h 01m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → DCA 13:00 → ORD 14:19UA 511 3h 52m Chicago ORD 18:11 → PWM 21:34UA 1264 8h 34m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON