tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:16, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Fort Myers on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2916 American Flight history → DCA 08:25 RSW 11:26 12% 3% 3.2% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 36m Chicago ORD 09:22 → RSW 13:18UA 1036 6h 48m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:00 → CLT 07:33AA 1521 51m Charlotte CLT 08:24 → RSW 10:33AA 1781 4h 33m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 07m Detroit DTW 08:36 → RSW 11:39DL 2001 5h 39m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 6h 11m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 30m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 7h 27m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 20m Houston IAH 09:33 → RSW 13:11UA 494 7h 11m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 5h 35m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → DCA 07:42 → ORD 08:52UA 441 2h 13m Chicago ORD 11:05 → RSW 15:07UA 2137 7h 25m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON