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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 15 Alaska Flight history → DCA 10:59 SAN 13:28 17% 3% 0.8% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic 1h 30m New York JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55DL 683 8h 53m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121 7h 38m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 00m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 7h 51m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:20DL 924 10h 04m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:45 → LAX 19:19DL 392 3h 26m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 9h 57m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061 3h 59m Chicago ORD 13:42 → SAN 16:00UA 559 10h 35m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SAN 11:43DL 843 8h 43m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820 2h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202 9h 05m 98% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 16:30 → EWR 18:03UA 4401 · flown by GoJet 1h 15m Newark EWR 19:18 → SAN 22:13UA 1102 8h 43m 66% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON