tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 1947 at 18:32, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1947 American Flight history → DCA 18:32 SAT 21:13 23% 6% 0.6% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 39m Chicago ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490 6h 59m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → DCA 11:59 → DFW 14:23AA 1623 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:35 → SAT 18:54AA 3899 · flown by Envoy 7h 55m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 49m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 8h 10m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:25 → ORD 09:43UA 1061 3h 47m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SAT 16:29UA 2844 9h 04m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → DCA 10:11 → ORD 11:17AA 2023 3h 46m Chicago ORD 15:03 → SAT 18:03AA 4176 · flown by Envoy 8h 52m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 25m Houston IAH 09:38 → SAT 10:54UA 1371 5h 54m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558 2h 32m Detroit DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458 7h 12m 99% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON