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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 9h 01m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:59 → DFW 07:02AA 2007 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:04 → SJC 10:56AA 2046 8h 57m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39AA 2006 1h 23m Phoenix PHX 11:02 → SJC 13:09AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 8h 20m 94% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 9h 49m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:04 → SJC 13:54AA 2834 9h 55m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624 3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:09 → SJC 23:34AA 364 11h 21m 98% 78%
AlaskaDetails → DCA 08:00 → SEA 10:58AS 1 2h 39m Seattle SEA 13:37 → SJC 15:43AS 657 10h 43m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3 46m Seattle SEA 20:45 → SJC 22:52AS 1444 8h 52m 73% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON