tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 820 Delta Flight history → DCA 17:45 SLC 20:41 13% 3% 0.6% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:15 → OMA 10:13DL 5608 · flown by Republic 2h 26m Omaha OMA 12:39 → SLC 14:24DL 3815 · flown by SkyWest 8h 09m 99% 95%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 8h 10m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:13 → CVG 10:55DL 5229 · flown by Endeavor 3h 11m Hebron CVG 14:06 → SLC 15:54DL 464 8h 41m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic 3h 49m New York JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 10h 19m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653 9h 35m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 9h 02m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 42m Houston IAH 09:55 → SLC 12:23UA 2242 8h 23m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:00 → ATL 10:50DL 455 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423 8h 51m 99% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON