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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Bush, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 59m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:59 → DFW 07:02AA 2007 1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:21 → SNA 09:45AA 2114 7h 46m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 1h 56m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 05m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 10:07 → DFW 12:29AA 795 3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:10 → SNA 17:33AA 3223 10h 26m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:22 → SNA 12:45AA 1933 8h 46m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:59 → DFW 10:31AA 1978 3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:23 → SNA 15:46AA 2659 10h 47m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 1h 48m Houston IAH 12:29 → SNA 14:12UA 1533 8h 52m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:51 → ORD 16:59AA 1637 51m Chicago ORD 17:50 → SNA 20:25AA 1179 7h 34m 61% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON