tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 2584 at 08:50, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2584 American Flight history → DCA 08:50 SRQ 11:48 20% 4% 2.3% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SRQ 15:24DL 3115 7h 24m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 3h 24m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 8h 42m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:00 → CLT 07:33AA 1521 2h 54m Charlotte CLT 10:27 → SRQ 12:28AA 1452 6h 28m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:17 → CLT 16:52AA 2040 2h 20m Charlotte CLT 19:12 → SRQ 21:06AA 2604 5h 49m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:15 → LGA 09:33DL 5772 · flown by Republic 55m New York LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412 5h 18m 88% 74%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:02 → EWR 16:42UA 4560 · flown by GoJet 3h 27m Newark EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324 8h 13m 96% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON