Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 391 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 391 DCA 08:03 → STL 09:10 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4166 DCA 18:53 → STL 20:04 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 391 Southwest	DCA 08:03	STL 09:10	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 4436 Republic	DCA 08:53	STL 10:34	13%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1678 Southwest	DCA 12:04	STL 13:15	17%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4680 Republic	DCA 20:03	STL 21:27	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 2788 Southwest	DCA 14:44	STL 15:55	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 8229 Southwest	DCA 19:12	STL 20:32	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3066 American	DCA 14:59	STL 16:40	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 4166 Southwest	DCA 18:53	STL 20:04	24%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON