Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1983 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1983 DCA 06:59 → TPA 09:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 544 DCA 18:51 → TPA 21:18 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1983 Southwest	DCA 06:59	TPA 09:25	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
AA 1972 American	DCA 08:28	TPA 11:20	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 3126 American	DCA 10:12	TPA 12:50	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 2790 Southwest	DCA 13:14	TPA 15:40	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1944 American Flight history →	DCA 15:40	TPA 18:18	21%	6%	0.9%	58%
AA 544 American Flight history →	DCA 18:51	TPA 21:18	26%	9%	1.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON