Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 19:35, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Tulsa on time.

Nonstops that day


OH 5497 PSA	DCA 14:05	TUL 16:15	14%	6%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DCA 10:58 → IAH 13:19UA 2190	3h 11m Houston	IAH 16:30 → TUL 18:08UA 6171 · flown by Mesa	8h 10m	99%	99%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620	6h 56m	99%	93%
American Details →	DCA 17:04 → ORD 18:28AA 1189	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 22:05 → TUL 00:06 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy	8h 02m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:15DL 380	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	6h 37m	99%	88%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	59m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → TUL 11:03UA 5795 · flown by SkyWest	5h 33m	96%	88%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 12:34 → TUL 14:17AA 2657	6h 47m	98%	87%
American Details →	DCA 13:59 → LGA 15:31AA 4730 · flown by Republic	3h 58m New York	LGA 19:29 → TUL 22:08AA 4341 · flown by Republic	9h 09m	98%	87%
United Details →	DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25UA 746	2h 30m Denver	DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest	8h 34m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON