Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, YX 4400 at 11:12, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 4400 Republic	DCA 11:12	TVC 13:31	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	2h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 54m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	3h 44m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 39m	99%	85%
American Details →	DCA 07:47 → ORD 09:05AA 2633	3h 16m Chicago	ORD 12:21 → TVC 14:36AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	100%	81%
United Details →	DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:33UA 2071	6h 28m	96%	69%
United Details →	DCA 14:00 → ORD 15:19UA 1888	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 18:25 → TVC 20:33UA 677	6h 33m	98%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON