tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, MQ 4110 at 10:35, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 4110 Envoy DCA 10:35 VPS 12:07 14% 3% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 10:43 → VPS 11:01DL 2048 6h 01m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 7h 00m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → VPS 16:00DL 2170 6h 44m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → DCA 19:35 → ATL 21:30DL 1007 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 4h 54m 96% 89%
AmericanDetails → DCA 04:59 → DFW 07:02AA 2007 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460 7h 29m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:36 → DFW 10:43AA 1978 2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:13 → VPS 15:20AA 2501 7h 44m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → DCA 11:59 → DFW 14:23AA 1623 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673 7h 39m 99% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON